The intelligence failures surrounding the invasion of Iraq dramatically illustrate the necessity of developing standards for evaluating expert opinion. This book fills that need. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions ...
Read More
The intelligence failures surrounding the invasion of Iraq dramatically illustrate the necessity of developing standards for evaluating expert opinion. This book fills that need. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making.
Read Less
Add this copy of Expert Political Judgment: How Good is It? How Can We to cart. $41.69, very good condition, Sold by Reuseabook rated 4.0 out of 5 stars, ships from Gloucester, GLOS, UNITED KINGDOM, published 2005 by Princeton University Press.
Choose your shipping method in Checkout. Costs may vary based on destination.
Seller's Description:
Dispatched, from the UK, within 48 hours of ordering. Though second-hand, the book is still in very good shape. Minimal signs of usage may include very minor creasing on the cover or on the spine.
Add this copy of Expert Political Judgment: How Good is It? How Can We to cart. $9.78, fair condition, Sold by GoodwillVSB rated 5.0 out of 5 stars, ships from Oxnard, CA, UNITED STATES, published 2006 by Princeton University Press.
Choose your shipping method in Checkout. Costs may vary based on destination.
Seller's Description:
Fair. The book is 100% readable but visibly worn, and damaged. This may include stains. tears, rips, folded pages, binding damage, dents, scuffs, scratches and sticker residue. The book also may contain heavy highlighting and notes. Most books listed do not fall under these conditions as we tend to underlist. If you would like a photo of your purchase, please contact us.
Add this copy of Expert Political Judgment: How Good is It? How Can We to cart. $10.50, very good condition, Sold by HPB-Ruby rated 5.0 out of 5 stars, ships from Dallas, TX, UNITED STATES, published 2006 by Princeton University Press.
Choose your shipping method in Checkout. Costs may vary based on destination.
Seller's Description:
Very good. Connecting readers with great books since 1972! Used books may not include companion materials, and may have some shelf wear or limited writing. We ship orders daily and Customer Service is our top priority!
Add this copy of Expert Political Judgment: How Good is It? How Can We to cart. $12.00, good condition, Sold by HPB-Red rated 5.0 out of 5 stars, ships from Dallas, TX, UNITED STATES, published 2006 by Princeton University Press.
Choose your shipping method in Checkout. Costs may vary based on destination.
Seller's Description:
Good. Connecting readers with great books since 1972! Used textbooks may not include companion materials such as access codes, etc. May have some wear or writing/highlighting. We ship orders daily and Customer Service is our top priority!
Add this copy of Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We to cart. $14.95, very good condition, Sold by George Lyon rated 5.0 out of 5 stars, ships from Alexandria, VA, UNITED STATES, published 2006 by Princeton University Press.
Add this copy of Expert Political Judgment: How Good is It? How Can We to cart. $15.99, good condition, Sold by Doss-Haus Books rated 5.0 out of 5 stars, ships from Redondo Beach, CA, UNITED STATES, published 2006 by Princeton University Press.
Choose your shipping method in Checkout. Costs may vary based on destination.
Seller's Description:
Fine. Book. 8vo-over 7¾-9¾" tall. Softcover 2006 edition. Text and covers in fine condition. Binding firm. One word neatly underlined with three word margin note.
Add this copy of Expert Political Judgment: How Good is It? How Can We to cart. $21.96, very good condition, Sold by BooksRun rated 5.0 out of 5 stars, ships from Philadelphia, PA, UNITED STATES, published by Princeton University Press.
Add this copy of Expert Political Judgment: How Good is It? How Can We to cart. $30.00, very good condition, Sold by Powell's Books Chicago rated 5.0 out of 5 stars, ships from Chicago, IL, UNITED STATES, published 2005 by Princeton University Press.
Add this copy of Expert Political Judgment: How Good is It? How Can We to cart. $56.40, new condition, Sold by GridFreed rated 5.0 out of 5 stars, ships from North Las Vegas, NV, UNITED STATES, published 2005 by Princeton University Press.
