A must-read for anyone who makes business decisions that have a major financial impact. As the recent collapse on Wall Street shows, we are often ill-equipped to deal with uncertainty and risk. Yet every day we base our personal and business plans on uncertainties, whether they be next month's sales, next year's costs, or tomorrow's stock price. In The Flaw of Averages , Sam Savage-known for his creative exposition of difficult subjects- describes common avoidable mistakes in assessing risk in the face of uncertainty. ...
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A must-read for anyone who makes business decisions that have a major financial impact. As the recent collapse on Wall Street shows, we are often ill-equipped to deal with uncertainty and risk. Yet every day we base our personal and business plans on uncertainties, whether they be next month's sales, next year's costs, or tomorrow's stock price. In The Flaw of Averages , Sam Savage-known for his creative exposition of difficult subjects- describes common avoidable mistakes in assessing risk in the face of uncertainty. Along the way, he shows why plans based on average assumptions are wrong, on average, in areas as diverse as healthcare, accounting, the War on Terror, and climate change. In his chapter on Sex and the Central Limit Theorem, he bravely grasps the literary third rail of gender differences. Instead of statistical jargon, Savage presents complex concepts in plain English. In addition, a tightly integrated web site contains numerous animations and simulations to further connect the seat of the reader's intellect to the seat of their pants. The Flaw of Averages typically results when someone plugs a single number into a spreadsheet to represent an uncertain future quantity. Savage finishes the book with a discussion of the emerging field of Probability Management, which cures this problem though a new technology that can pack thousands of numbers into a single spreadsheet cell. Praise for The Flaw of Averages "Statistical uncertainties are pervasive in decisions we make every day in business, government, and our personal lives. Sam Savage's lively and engaging book gives any interested reader the insight and the tools to deal effectively with those uncertainties. I highly recommend The Flaw of Averages ." -- William J. Perry , Former U.S. Secretary of Defense "Enterprise analysis under uncertainty has long been an academic ideal. . . . In this profound and entertaining book, Professor Savage shows how to make all this practical, practicable, and comprehensible." -- -Harry Markowitz , Nobel Laureate in Economics
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Add this copy of The Flaw of Averages: Why We Underestimate Risk in the to cart. £3.56, good condition, Sold by Phatpocket Limited rated 4.0 out of 5 stars, ships from Waltham Abbey, ESSEX, UNITED KINGDOM, published 2009 by Wiley.
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Good. Ships from UK in 48 hours or less (usually same day). Your purchase helps support Sri Lankan Children's Charity 'The Rainbow Centre'. Ex-library, so some stamps and wear, but in good overall condition. 100% money back guarantee. We are a world class secondhand bookstore based in Hertfordshire, United Kingdom and specialize in high quality textbooks across an enormous variety of subjects. We aim to provide a vast range of textbooks, rare and collectible books at a great price. Our donations to The Rainbow Centre have helped provide an education and a safe haven to hundreds of children who live in appalling conditions. We provide a 100% money back guarantee and are dedicated to providing our customers with the highest standards of service in the bookselling industry.
Add this copy of The Flaw of Averages: Why We Underestimate Risk in the to cart. £4.37, good condition, Sold by Greener Books rated 4.0 out of 5 stars, ships from London, UNITED KINGDOM, published 2009 by John Wiley & Sons.
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Good. **SHIPPED FROM UK** We believe you will be completely satisfied with our quick and reliable service. All orders are dispatched as swiftly as possible! Buy with confidence! Greener Books.
Add this copy of The Flaw of Averages: Why We Underestimate Risk in the to cart. £7.02, good condition, Sold by Zoom Books East rated 5.0 out of 5 stars, ships from Glendale Heights, IL, UNITED STATES, published 2009 by John Wiley & Sons Inc.
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Book is in good condition and may include underlining highlighting and minimal wear. The book can also include From the library of labels. May not contain miscellaneous items toys dvds etc. We offer 100% money back guarantee and 24 7 customer service.
Add this copy of The Flaw of Averages: Why We Underestimate Risk in the to cart. £7.05, fair condition, Sold by Goodwill of Colorado rated 5.0 out of 5 stars, ships from COLORADO SPRINGS, CO, UNITED STATES, published 2012 by Wiley.
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Fair. This item is in overall acceptable condition. Covers and dust jackets are intact but may have heavy wear including creases bends edge wear curled corners or minor tears as well as stickers or sticker-residue. Pages are intact but may have minor curls bends or moderate to considerable highlighting writing. Binding is intact; however spine may have heavy wear. Digital codes may not be included and have not been tested to be redeemable and or active. A well-read copy overall. Please note that all items are donated goods and are in used condition. Orders shipped Monday through Friday! Your purchase helps put people to work and learn life skills to reach their full potential. Orders shipped Monday through Friday. Your purchase helps put people to work and learn life skills to reach their full potential. Thank you!
Add this copy of The Flaw of Averages: Why We Underestimate Risk in the to cart. £7.67, fair condition, Sold by ThriftBooks-Dallas rated 4.0 out of 5 stars, ships from Dallas, TX, UNITED STATES, published 2012 by Wiley.
Add this copy of The Flaw of Averages: Why We Underestimate Risk in the to cart. £7.69, good condition, Sold by Aspen Book Company rated 5.0 out of 5 stars, ships from Denver, CO, UNITED STATES, published 2012 by Wiley.
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Good. A well-loved companion. Corners and cover might show a little wear and you could find some notes or highlights. The dust jacket might be MIA it might have been a library book and extras aren't guaranteed-but the story's all there!
Add this copy of The Flaw of Averages: Why We Underestimate Risk in the to cart. £7.80, very good condition, Sold by ThriftBooks-Atlanta rated 4.0 out of 5 stars, ships from Austell, GA, UNITED STATES, published 2009 by Wiley.
Add this copy of The Flaw of Averages: Why We Underestimate Risk in the to cart. £7.80, very good condition, Sold by ThriftBooks-Reno rated 4.0 out of 5 stars, ships from Reno, NV, UNITED STATES, published 2009 by Wiley.
Add this copy of The Flaw of Averages: Why We Underestimate Risk in the to cart. £7.80, very good condition, Sold by ThriftBooks-Baltimore rated 4.0 out of 5 stars, ships from Halethorpe, MD, UNITED STATES, published 2009 by Wiley.
Add this copy of The Flaw of Averages: Why We Underestimate Risk in the to cart. £7.80, very good condition, Sold by ThriftBooks-Dallas rated 4.0 out of 5 stars, ships from Dallas, TX, UNITED STATES, published 2009 by Wiley.
