"From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions. Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and ...
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"From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions. Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people--including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer--who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn't require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future--whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life--and is destined to become a modern classic"--
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Add this copy of Superforecasting: the Art and Science of Prediction to cart. $9.55, fair condition, Sold by ZBK Books rated 5.0 out of 5 stars, ships from Woodland Park, NJ, UNITED STATES, published 2015 by Crown.
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Fair. Used book-May contain writing notes highlighting bends or folds. Text is readable book is clean and pages and cover mostly intact. May show normal wear and tear. Item may be missing CD. May include library marks. Fast Shipping.
Add this copy of Superforecasting: the Art and Science of Prediction to cart. $10.55, good condition, Sold by Seattle Goodwill rated 5.0 out of 5 stars, ships from Seattle, WA, UNITED STATES, published 2015 by Crown Publishing Group (NY).
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May have some shelf-wear due to normal use. Your purchase funds free job training and education in the greater Seattle area. Thank you for supporting Goodwill's nonprofit mission!
Add this copy of Superforecasting: the Art and Science of Prediction to cart. $10.56, good condition, Sold by Goodwill Books rated 5.0 out of 5 stars, ships from Hillsboro, OR, UNITED STATES, published 2015 by Crown Publishing Group (NY).
Add this copy of Superforecasting: the Art and Science of Prediction to cart. $10.56, good condition, Sold by Goodwill of Colorado rated 5.0 out of 5 stars, ships from COLORADO SPRINGS, CO, UNITED STATES, published 2015 by Crown Publishing Group (NY).
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This item is in overall good condition. Covers and dust jackets are intact but may have minor wear including slight curls or bends to corners as well as cosmetic blemishes including stickers. Pages are intact but may have minor highlighting/ writing. Binding is intact; however, spine may have slight wear overall. Digital codes may not be included and have not been tested to be redeemable and/or active. Minor shelf wear overall. Please note that all items are donated goods and are in used condition. Orders shipped Monday through Friday! Your purchase helps put people to work and learn life skills to reach their full potential. Orders shipped Monday through Friday. Your purchase helps put people to work and learn life skills to reach their full potential. Thank you!
Add this copy of Superforecasting: the Art and Science of Prediction to cart. $10.56, fair condition, Sold by Goodwill of Orange County rated 5.0 out of 5 stars, ships from Santa Ana, CA, UNITED STATES, published 2015 by Crown Publishing Group (NY).
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Fair. This is a USED book, it is subject to external and interior wear including, underlining, highlighting, annotations, water damage, minor scuffs and tears. This is a donated book accepted as is. Stickers and sticker residue on the cover should be expected, as well as spine wear from use. There are NO codes or disc(s) included. All items ship Monday-Friday within 2-3 business days. Thank you for supporting Goodwill of OC.
Add this copy of Superforecasting: the Art and Science of Prediction to cart. $12.00, good condition, Sold by HPB-Red rated 5.0 out of 5 stars, ships from Dallas, TX, UNITED STATES, published 2015 by Crown.
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Good. Connecting readers with great books since 1972! Used textbooks may not include companion materials such as access codes, etc. May have some wear or writing/highlighting. We ship orders daily and Customer Service is our top priority!
Add this copy of Superforecasting: the Art and Science of Prediction to cart. $14.54, fair condition, Sold by Goodwill of Silicon Valley rated 5.0 out of 5 stars, ships from San Jose, CA, UNITED STATES, published 2015 by Crown.
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Fair. Supports Goodwill of Silicon Valley job training programs. The cover and pages are in Acceptable condition! Any other included accessories are also in Acceptable condition showing use. Use can include some highlighting and writing page and cover creases as well as other types visible wear such as cover tears discoloration staining marks scuffs etc. All pages intact.
Add this copy of Superforecasting: the Art and Science of Prediction to cart. $14.95, fair condition, Sold by BooksRun rated 5.0 out of 5 stars, ships from Philadelphia, PA, UNITED STATES, published 2015 by Crown.
Add this copy of Superforecasting: the Art and Science of Prediction to cart. $15.98, good condition, Sold by Goodwill Industries of S.W.FL. rated 5.0 out of 5 stars, ships from Fort Myers, FL, UNITED STATES, published 2015 by Crown.
Add this copy of Superforecasting: the Art and Science of Prediction to cart. $16.99, very good condition, Sold by HPB-Ruby rated 5.0 out of 5 stars, ships from Dallas, TX, UNITED STATES, published 2015 by Crown.
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Very good. Connecting readers with great books since 1972! Used books may not include companion materials, and may have some shelf wear or limited writing. We ship orders daily and Customer Service is our top priority!
